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“Wrong number” (Numerology)

numberfearIn an attempt to stand out among the myriad of divination methods, numerologists present their practice as the most scholarly and learned of the paranormal arts. They point to patterns in a seashell or galaxy and attempt to tie this to someone’s job satisfaction or musical ability.

Or they will reference repeating trends in nature, such as those of the Fibonacci Sequence, and try to ride these mathematical coattails to relevance. They cite Newton, Kepler, Plato, and Erdős, taking their quotes about the beauty of numbers and twisting them horribly out of context. The most abused victim of this historical distortion is Pythagoras, with some even calling numerology a Pythagorean system, even though he had nothing to do with it.

He had some misguided followers who took his groundbreaking ideas and tried to make them into something esoteric. But there is no evidence that Pythagoras thought there was any relevance to this, and no reason to think he endorsed the idea that names and birthdays could reveal personality, interests, and fate. Even if he did think that, there is no reason to suspect it’s a correct conclusion, and is merely the appeal to irrelevant authority.

Another fallacy embraced by numerologists is the appeal to antiquity. This is always a strange one. Why would persons enamored by the deep past praise it using a computer? Why do they use electric lights instead of kerosene lamps or torches? As to its use in numerology, the appeal to antiquity has practitioners boasting it was used in one form or another by Egyptians, Chinese, Greeks, Hebrews, Armenians, and Arabs. In this case, the appeal to antiquity actually highlights one of numerology’s fatal flaws. All of these cultures had their own alphabet and not all had the same calendar, so the basic premise of numerology is snuffed out.

Numbers have often been seen to have mystic power. 3, 7, and 40 are common in the Bible. Greeks were fond of 12, the Chinese embrace 8, and 7 in a lucky number in the United States. But while numerologists highlight this history, the simple idea of using only name and birthdate is relatively new, probably dating to the early 20th Century.

Values are assigned to each number or letter, based on whim or guesswork. Despite this shaky foundation, numerologist.com calls the field a science. If so, it’s a science that lays out no predictions, describes no method, performs no tests, explains no hypotheses, and makes no attempt to replicate or falsify. Proponents offer no explanation of how a manufactured set of numbers, set to an arbitrary base of 10, would determine personality, interests, and life path. There is no explication about how it would work or why we should believe it, unless you count a bunch of testimonials.

These testimonials are the result of subjective validation, the law of truly large numbers, magical thinking, and selective memory. Few people who are satisfied with their lives will seek out a numerologist, and therein lies the appeal. They tell customers about their hidden strengths and powers, as well as laying out a thrilling vision of amazing love, financial security, and career success. Besides that obvious appeal, it can be reassuring and emotional to have someone talk with you about what matters most to you. It plays to primal urges to have someone reassure you that your life has meaning.

It is good to examine strengths, weaknesses, goals, and personality traits, but this should be realistic and based on deep reflection about who you are and where you want to go. This should be self-examination, or maybe done with a good friend who might know you better than you know yourself in some ways. It should never be done with a stranger who literally knows only two pieces of information about you, neither of which define you. Numerologists insist that one’s name and birth date determines that person’s destiny. You were meant to have a certain job, marry a certain person, play a certain sport, and pay a certain numerologist to tell you this.

Numerologist.com offers a free reading. I’m impressed, they know I wouldn’t pay for it. Many times, these free divination methods will reveal the same reading for every person. The readings usually apply to most people, since they are written vaguely enough and are full of contradictions, such as, “You are often timid, but not afraid to assert yourself if your ideas are being dismissed.”

With numerology this isn’t as possible since people have different names and birth dates. However, once your magic number is calculated, you will receive the same reading as someone with identical numbers. I deduced this because I received my exhaustive reading within five seconds. The system assigned numbers to my letters and birthday, providing no reason why those values were chosen or why they would influence what I’ll have for lunch, much less impact major life choices and events.

The reading rambles on for several tedious paragraphs, making me out to be a mix of Warren Buffet, Maurice Greene, and Johnny Depp. This would appeal to anyone who has the low self-esteem consistent with someone seeking out a mysterious stranger to fix their train wreck of a life.

In an anomalous, more modest, tidbit, I am told, “You enjoy golf, chess, and equestrian pursuits.” I have never golfed. I have ridden horses maybe a dozen times. I played chess halfway regularly when I was in my teens and 20s. So here, the success of my reading is 0 percent, 60 percent, and 5 percent. But if I’m wanting to believe, I will remember the horse on the chessboard, but not the one that I rode. Or I will think, I only rode few times, but really enjoyed it when I did, so this guy has got me down. Golf will be dismissed completely, and eventually forgotten.

“You love nature and especially gardening and landscaping. Number 4’s often also own many pets.” I don’t garden and don’t have a pet. This guy isn’t even in any good. He makes it way too specific, in one case saying it was my fate to build an opera house. However, if someone wants to believe bad enough, this erroneous analysis will morph into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

“Your insistence on financial security, charity and the stewardship of the young often makes you a pillar of the community at a very young age.” Are they even trying here? I’m 47.

What follows are several leaflets for sale, including one that instructs on how to select fortuitous telephone numbers and hotel rooms. I see now why my reading included the line, “If you are stolen from, your highest spiritual calling is to forgive the debt. “

Numerologist.com gushes about how people and meaningful events in our lives can never be a coincidence. It chides skeptics and rationalists, describing us as persons who prefer to avoid this truth because it makes us feel safe.

However, people seek to avoid randomness, not patterns. The aversion to randomness, the desire to feel in control, and the wish to find meaning in life is what causes some to embrace divination.

Someone with a common name, such as Joshua James Franklin, born on the same day as someone with the same moniker, will not lead an identical life and have the same strengths, goals, and personality as his namesake. This has been shown in two studies, the only ones I know of that have attempted a scientific analysis of numerology. Links to those studies are here and here.

Both studies had negative results. The second of the two involved a professional numerologist and 200 volunteers. It was attempted thrice and failed all three times. Now those are numbers that mean something.

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“Medically disqualified” (Alternative medicine red flags)

clowndoc

In an era of information overload, we are bombarded with unsubstantiated, sometimes contradictory claims, many of them health-related. There seem to be a lot of health options to sort through and health is only one aspect of our hectic lives.

Therefore, filtering through the quackery can be daunting. Sources like the Skeptic’s Dictionary, the Center for Inquiry, and the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry do a good job of staying on top of dubious claims, but no one can keep track of them all. So here’s how to arm yourself with the ability to detect bogus cures and treatments masquerading as medicine.

First, it helps to understand what medicine is. It is the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of disease, as well as the science that deals with maintaining health. Medicine is backed by the metadata of peer-reviewed, published double blind studies using the Scientific Method.

Beware the prefixes. There is no alternative medicine, integrative medicine, complementary medicine, supplemental medicine, eastern medicine, or functional medicine. There is just medicine, the stuff proven to prevent or treat illness, injury, or disease. The others are not forms of medicine, but rather marketing terms.

Identifying the nonsense has gotten much more challenging over the last decade. For quackery is no longer confined to pop-up ads, hot tips from a cousin’s friend, and the neighborhood Holistic Health Hut. It has infiltrated mainstream hospitals and medical schools, including some of the nation’s most prestigious universities.

I looked into this trend after learning a local hospital was offering Reiki, and the problem is much worse than I had realized. My greatest fear is that craoniosacral therapists and Reiki practitioners will move from their relatively segregated positions in hospital integrative care wings, and into ambulances and emergency rooms.

I am profoundly disappointed by hospitals and medical schools lowering their standards, rather than insisting that proponents of Gerson Therapy, magnet therapy, and reflexology raise theirs. But I have faced the harsh reality that since hospitals and medical schools are businesses, profits come before patients.

Since hospitals and medical schools are now part of the problem, the solution is up to you and your friendly blogger. Here are some signs to look for that something is not medicine. First, a couple of easy-to-remember ones: If it references “energy” or “quantum,” it’s best avoided. And “quantum energy,” oh my.

Two more huge clues are claiming that patients get the best of all worlds, and are treated as a whole person. For instance, we have this quackery from Stanford Health Care: “Integrative Medicine combines the best of alternative and complementary treatments with mainstream modern medicine and psychology to provide care for the whole person: mind and body.”

This glosses over the lack of double blind studies or use of the Scientific Method in the alternative world. As to “whole person claim,” mainstream medicine does more than treat the disease, though that is properly the primary focus. The patient’s genetics, heredity, lifestyle, and habits are also figured into a treatment plan. In limited instances, “integrative medicine” can be legitimate, as long as it is clearly delineated what is treating what. For instance, chemotherapy could be used to treat cancer, while meditation could be used to deal with the stress of having the disease. Linguistically-speaking, this could be called integrative care.

One of the most frequent pseudomedicine ploys is the emphasis on testimonials. This is successful because persons have a more emotional connection to someone explaining their illness and relief than they have to a study’s abstract. On the Duke Integrative Medicine website, we have these praises from anonymous sources:

“The word THANKS does not even begin to express how I feel.”

“I was meant to come here. You have experiences in life that can alter your being, and that’s happened to me here.”

“I felt so relaxed and so at peace just knowing I had done something good for my body and good for my soul and good for my mind.”

“It is a place where mind, body and soul come together to be fed and nourished in perfect harmony in a sanctuary-like environment.”

“A really incredible experience. I am motivated to make changes.”

“I think there will be more joy in my life.”

These sound like people leaving a Tony Robbins seminar, not persons receiving medical care. The dozen testimonials on this site do not equate to one morsel of science-based evidence. Indeed, there is a conspicuous lack of double blind studies referenced on the site. There is just one, and it suggested integrative therapy had shown some ability to relieve chronic pain. Of course, this was because real medicine was used along with counterfeit methods. The mainstream chronic pain treatment could have been augmented with unicycle riding and gotten the same results.

Another frequent pseudomedicine claim is the war on toxins. A related one is touting the ability to help the body do something or other. The liver will take care of your toxins and if your body does something naturally, it doesn’t need any help.

One of the greater concentrations of quackery red flags comes from Shane Ellison, who dubs himself the “People’s Chemist.” We’ll let him serve as a handy microcosm for pseudomedical notions.

First, he trots out the toxin and body-healing assistance lines. Whatever your body was doing, it will continue to do so whether you pop this guy’s pills or not.

He also makes up terms like “nutrient logic” and “hormone intelligence.” On this one, the best advice I can give is to immerse yourself in the skeptic and medicine movements. I recognize at first glance when nonsense notions are passed off as medicine, an ability I lacked five years ago.

Ellison then throws in the usual testimonials, all leading up to his books or bottles for sell, another red flag. Along the way, he informs us, “My laboratory has integrated the latest advances in chemistry and biology to create natural products that confer positive, measurable results.” If it was created in a laboratory, it is not natural. That’s fine, I’ve addressed the appeal to nature fallacy before. But this lack of understanding calls his medical credentials into question. And his “positive, measurable results” are undefined and not submitted for peer review. Taking claims straight to potential consumers instead of peer review is the most vermilion of the red flags.

Another sign is the conspiracy angle, such as “doctors don’t want you to know,” or “What pharmaceutical companies hate.” Doctors are not cut from a monolithic swath, hunched over in their white coats to keep secret knowledge amongst their shadowy selves. Yet in one of his blog posts, Ellison interviews an anonymous school nurse who tells him, presumably in excited whispers, “There’s an ulterior motive behind the vaccine movement that is money-driven and evil.”

Also, Ellison describes pharmaceutical companies as being involved in a “plot designed to sabotage health and wealth while causing untold ecological damage.” There’s still more: “Big Pharma manipulates studies using checkbook science. This allows them to pay for the design and interpretation of clinical trials. There is also medical ghostwriting, the slimy practice of hiring PhD’s to crank out drug reports that hype benefits.” Yet Ellison is selling natural cures that promise to stop strokes, heart attacks, and diabetes. In other words, he’s cranking out drug reports that hype benefits.

Another red flag is trying to make the patient feel special. Johns Hopkins Internal Medicine lauds its “individualized approach,” while the tricky blue devils at Duke Integrative Medicine trumpet that patients “experience a new approach to medical care that brings you and your provider together in a dynamic partnership dedicated to optimizing YOUR health and healing. Our approach focuses on all of who you are, recognizing that the subtle interactions of mind, body, spirit and community have a direct impact on your vitality and well-being.

Not be outdone, Yale says, “Integrative Medicine is the practice of medicine that reaffirms the importance of the relationship between practitioner and patient and focuses on the whole person.”

Keeping with Yale, the site also tell us, “Through open-minded exploration and rigorous scientific inquiry, we aim to improve awareness and access to the best in evidence-based, comprehensive medical care available worldwide, with the goal of optimizing health and healing.

Here, open-minded means just making up stuff and seeing if anything works. That’s not a strawman, either. Yale physician David Katz praised the lack of evidence required, saying, “With internal medicine, once I’ve tried everything the textbooks tell me, I’m done. But with integrative medicine, I always have something to try. I never run out of options.” Per the Yale site, these options include herbalism, acupuncture, Reiki, and thinking the tongue will reveal diseases in other parts of the body. These methods are used without research, clinical trials, peer review, or attempts to replicate and falsify.

Continuing the Ivy League capitulation to made-up medicine, we get this from Harvard: “Excellent care seeks to understand how the ailment affects a patient’s overall physical and mental well-being. Excellent care considers the interconnected systems of the body and mind. Excellent care enhances patients’ health by considering all the tools at our disposal, those from the technologically advanced hemisphere of Western medicine, as well as from the traditionally based hemisphere of Eastern medicine. Excellent care acknowledges the whole patient and diverse forms of treatment.”

This meandering description references no science, breakthrough, research, testing, or proof of efficiency yet is being peddled as medicine by Harvard. With standards this loose, it’s no wonder Harvard endorses chiropractic, even though its central tenet, vitalism, completely contradicts the Germ Theory that modern medicine is based on. Harvard is also fond of acupuncture, part of the university’s appeal to ancient wisdom. But a treatment’s validity is based on its efficacy, not its antiquity. The idea that demons cause illness is much older than Germ Theory, but that doesn’t make it much better.

Harvard even goes so far as to embrace craniosacral therapy. This is when a person, using no instruments or way to measure what they are doing, gives a gentle massage to the cranium and sacrum of a patient to cure any ailment. Yes, Harvard is championing the idea that tuberculosis could be cured by some guy giving a neck and scalp massage. I don’t think Harvard will get rid of tuberculosis this way, but they are doing a good job of eliminating what we know about anatomy and physiology.

These practices won’t make anybody healthy, but their use by our top medical facilities makes me sick.

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“Futility rites” (Alternative medicine birth control)

BABYWEREWOLF

Eugen Jonas has combined Babylonian texts and a subgenre of astrology to deduce that less frequent intercourse will reduce the chance of pregnancy.

I could find no challenge to this premise, so we’ll move onto some of his other assertions. While mainstream infertility specialists try to help couples conceive, Jonas goes beyond pedestrian procreation and enables clients to choose the gender prior to conception. Under the Jonas treatment, miscarriages are a misfortune of the past, as are physical and mental defects.

This Brave New World was discovered in 1956 when Jonas came across a fragmented ancient manuscript that read, “A woman is fertile according to the moon.” There was nothing in science to support this, but Jonas insisted there need be no conflict. Yes, women, you CAN have it all: Pregnancy through normal means and through the lunar channel.

He delved into cosmobiology, an offshoot of astrology which emphasizes points between heavenly bodies, rather than planets, satellites, and stars themselves. He emerged with a system that centered on the angles of the sun and moon at the time of a woman’s birth. There was “like affects like” connection; if a woman was born during a full moon, she would be fertile during future full moons. Additionally, the positon of the moon at the time of conception determines gender, while the planets’ positions determines miscarriages and birth defects.

For those seeking to avoid pregnancy, Jonas has designed a chart to follow, with a series of six- and 13-day windows within a month in which the woman should abstain, since she is fertile based on her lunar reading. Persons following this less-than-revolutionary method would likely succeed more often than not. There’s a 50-50 chance the gender request will by celestially granted, and most babies are healthy. These factors have enabled Jonas to accumulate 300 anecdotes from satisfied customers. There are no peer-reviewed studies or publications supporting this, but his website reports that the work of Dr. Jonas has been confirmed by Dr. Jonas.

Conversely, two European studies examined a total of 12,000 deliveries and found that the births were equally distributed throughout the lunar cycle.

In Jonas’ teachings, gender is determined not by a man’s sperm, but by whether the moon is in the male or female sign of the Zodiac. And there is no relationship between birth defects and genetics or chromosome imbalance. Rather, they are the result of “unfavorable distribution of gravitational forces of the near celestial bodies at the time of conception.”

Jonas offers no science to support any of this so I went to lunarium.co.uk, a Jonas-friendly website to see if it could offer any. One tab reads, “How the method works.” OK, here we go, time to lay out the methods, testing, research, hypotheses, predictions, replication, peer review, data sharing, and attempts to falsify.

Here it is: “If a woman was born at the time of a certain phase, each time the same phase will take place in the sky, that will be her moment of unusually high fertility, her potential Lunar Conception moment.” Later, we are told, “The gender of the conceived child will depend on the sign of the Zodiac in which the Moon was at the moment of Lunar Conception.”

This was a rehashing of what this is, not how it works. So there wasn’t much substance in the explanation, although they did throw in the word ‘algorithm’ once or twice. It also noted that, “Science cannot explain this,” which is the one thing science has in common with the portion of the Lunarium website dedicated to explaining it.

In addition to bathing in fertility-enriching moonlight, the website stresses the importance of a healthy, stress-free life in tune with nature. But the only natural way to be completely without stress is to be dead, and that’s not healthy.

Another piece of advice: “If the conception cosmogram for the child is not well-aspected, but the mother’s own cosmogram is favorable, the negative influences are overcome to a certain degree.” If you can’t understand that, it’s OK because they will sell you a consultation with an astrologer to figure out what they were trying to tell you.

While focusing mostly on cosmobiology’s impact on infertility, Jonas also cautions that undiagnosed celiac disease and toxic cosmetic products are to blame, so ditch the rye bread and shampoo as well.

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“Codebreaker” (Body Code)

ALPHWhen I started this blog, I knew I would address Bigfoot, Nostradamus, mediums, ghosts, and astrologers. I figured it would be a nice little hobby that would eventually run out of topics. But I was unaware then of how widespread this lunacy is. I’m continually exposed to new topics, much of it in alternative medicine.

Just this week I learned about Bradley Nelson, who peddles products called the Body Code and the Emotion Code. I went to his website and was greeted by Joe, a live person who wanted to exchange messages with me. He asked my name. Wayne seemed not near California or alternative medicine enough, so I reversed my name. There we go, Enyaw, quite the New Age moniker. Our chat went like this:

“What is the difference between the Body Code and the Emotion Code?’

“That is an often asked question, Enyaw. While the emotion code is a healing method which identifies and releases trapped emotions that cause both emotional and physical health issues, the body code utilizes six fundamental areas of imbalance and dysfunction that are blocking the healing process. Understanding these together will help you feel better.”

“What is a fundamental area of imbalance and dysfunction?”

“Hmm. It sounds like perhaps you have not seen the Body Code in action yet. It might be easiest for you to watch a video at this link and see what we’re talking about. Would that be helpful for you, Enyaw?”

“Sure, I will check those out a little later. What does it mean by blocking the healing process? What is the healing process and what is blocking it?”

“Those are good, advanced questions. You’d probably be best served by speaking to one of our Wellness Advisors. Could I please have your full name, phone number, and the best time for one of our Wellness Advisors to answer your questions, Enyaw?”

My next, unasked question was, “Why are you using these terms and promising they will improve my health if you don’t know what they are or how they work?”

I have found that even the most rudimentary question or slightest challenge to alternative medicine claims, terms, and methods will throw their advocates off. People come to them desperate for answers or healing. They might ask, “What will this do it for me?,” but not “How will this do it for me?” The clinicians are unprepared for even a basic probe of their tactics.

By throwing out terms that sound technical, complex, and medical, the clinician aims to impress the patients, or at least silence them into acquiescence. It’s the adage, “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.” And it’s an effective strategy, as evidenced by the clinicians being perplexed when the bullshit is thrown back in their face.

The website describes the Body Code as “a new breakthrough in natural healing.” If it’s natural, there’s no need to buy the product since it will just happen anyway. We are promised that putting the techniques into practice “will bring health, wealth, and meaningful relationships.” My health is OK, but I don’t really have time to develop meaningful relationships outside of my family. Maybe if this wealth thing works out, I can quit my job and build those relationships. So let’s check out more of the site.

“Have you ever wondered what it would be like to wake up feeling powerful and youthful, with total clarity, passion and excitement about your life?” Sure, but waking up takes me about 60 seconds, so I’m more interested in having those attributes during other 23 hours and 59 minutes.

The site notes that “We are aging every day.” After promises as grandiose as those we’ve seen so far, I thought maybe they were going to offer to reverse the aging process. Alas, this introduction was only to segue into the frequent alternative medicine trick of insisting the purchase needs to be made immediately. If that’s insufficient incentive, they add, “There are people in your life who need your help now!” I had been feeling OK, but a sense of guilt just came over me, I better purchase the Emotional Body package to fix it.

Nelson says his focus is on finding and removing imbalances in the body. “I believe that the symptoms that you are having are because of imbalances that are going on in your body. If we can find those imbalances and fix them, perhaps your symptoms will go away.” Translation: Abracadabra. Removing imbalance is a pseudoscientific notion with no medical legitimacy. No explanation is offered about what is imbalanced, why it is, or how it’s fixed. We are only told it is a panacea that leads to this: “The Body Code has been designed and created for YOU, so you can live the life you want, with ultimate health, wealth and happiness.”

Along with removing imbalances, Nelson assures us he will unblock emotional and prosperity blocks and unlock your subconsciousness, which he says is 90-95 percent of the mind. Here’s what the patients get out of it: “Removing these imbalances makes it possible for the body to return to a state of perfect balance and health. The result is a disappearance of pain, fatigue, disease, depression and all manner of other symptoms! The Body Code truly is The Ultimate Health, Wealth and Happiness Solution! You’ll be able to instantly unlock an infinite well of knowledge. Feel happier, relieve stress, form and nurture better relationships, increase your wealth, and even live longer.”

Since he has ascribed unlimited benefits to his products, any seeming fortune will be attributed to them. Indeed, patients on the site bought into this Magical Thinking and credited Nelson with everything from stopping knee pain to saving their marriage to curing infertility. Once the unconscious mind is untapped, Nelson assures, patients can ask it yes-or-no questions, and the mind will let you know what is wrong with your mental or physical health. It’s a Magic 8 Ball for the body and soul.

As to the physical body, Nelson writes that there is a literal energy surrounding the heart which screws with our emotions. This idea upends anatomy, physiology, physics, and neurology in one sentence.

The website describes the products as so amazing that it is altruistic to use them. For the person will be so transformed that it will rub off on those around them. In that case, I’ll pass on buying them since their infectious nature ensures their benefits will eventually reach me.

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“Sasquashed” (Bigfoot hunters)

BIGFOOTCITY

Those who think Bigfoot is a myth could someday be proven wrong, while this could never happen to those who think he’s real. That’s why there will continue to be the Bigfoot Field Researchers Organization, the North American Wood Ape Conservancy, and likeminded groups. These organizations are dedicated to the proposition that a sustainable population of eight-foot bipedal apes has clandestinely lived within 50 miles of Seattle for over a century.

There has been nary a capture, roadkill victim, or hunter’s trophy in this time. No hikers or campers have stumbled upon their remains. They are lumbering yet stealthy and so socially conscious that they clean up every drop of excrement they produce.

There are two primary camps among Bigfoot enthusiasts. The first bunch fiercely insists he is real and are hostile to the insinuation they have an imaginary friend. These types hang out at sites like cryptomundo.com. When Skeptical Inquirer deputy editor Benjamin Radford documented 10 scientific reasons Bigfoot is unlikely, believers pounced.

A poster named Bukwasboo expressed his displeasure thusly: “UGGGGGH! Please stop giving this guy the attention he wants. Every one of his tired old skeptical talking points can be resoundingly refuted with logical and informed answers. We’ve heard all this before a million times. UGGGGGH!!!!!!”

At first, I wasn’t too impressed with Bukwasboo’s response. But then I noticed he added a sixth exclamation point and he won me over.

His cohort Opalman added, “I could easily pick this specious, almost emotionally defensive catalog of illogical, unscientific palaver apart nine different ways on each point. But it’s a waste of time. They wouldn’t consider the possible existence of Sasquatch even if they were tripped by one.”

Both claim they could take apart his points, yet conspicuously fail to even attempt it. They respond with no science or evidence, just anger, personal attacks, and lies. They point out they’ve heard the arguments before as if that somehow renders them invalid. Their responses, however, do lend credence to the notion that North America is home to bipedal hominids with subhuman intelligence.

Others on the site point to tales of giant apes existing in many ancient North American cultures, and count this as evidence. By this logic, white Anglo males have magic powers, as demonstrated by Harry Potter, Prince Caspian, and Merlin.

While close-minded on this topic, proponents nevertheless demonstrate mental agility through swift ad hoc reasoning. Why don’t we find their remains? Because they bury their dead. Why is there no roadkill? Because they look before they cross the road. So a species advanced enough to have funerals and traffic safety plans roam about without leaving a trace of its civilization or culture.

Now onto camp two, those who think Bigfoot exists, but withhold definitive statements since no living or dead creature has been found. The BFRO says this about Bigfoot sightings, tracks, and yelps:

“To many, these suggest the presence of an animal, probably a primate, that exists today in very low population densities. If true, this species, having likely evolved alongside humans, became astonishingly adept at avoiding human contact through a process of natural selection.

“To others, these same facts point to a cultural phenomenon kept alive today through a combination of the misidentification of known animals, wishful thinking, and the deliberate fabrication of evidence.”

This is downright reasonable compared to the stances of Opalman and Bukwasboo, but we will see that this optimism if unfounded.

My main beef is with these organizations purporting to do science. The preceding paragraphs reference population densities, species, and natural selection, giving them a veneer of scientific legitimacy. But the tactics and techniques of its “researchers” fail to follow the Scientific Method, and includes a Bigfoot Report Form. Since I saw Shaquille O’Neal at the 1991 Final Four in Indianapolis, I filed a report that I had observed a dark seven-foot bipedal creature in Indiana, and this was added to the evidence file. No one doing legitimate science is going to put stock in unverifiable reports like these.

There have been at least two anthropologists who decided chasing Bigfoot was a résumé booster: The late Grover Krantz and Jeffrey Meldrum, who works with the BFRO. It requires a little accommodation, but Meldrum can probably be credited with applying the Scientific Method at the beginning of his monster quests. He defines the question, develops a hypothesis, makes a prediction, and then tests it. But that’s where the science ends. Since repeated forays into the woods turn up nothing definitive, there’s nothing to analyze, nothing to replicate, nothing to submit for peer review, and no data to share. Of crucial importance, the existence of Bigfoot is unfalsifiable. The BFRO defines itself as, “The only scientific research organization exploring the Bigfoot mystery.” Yet the site is primarily eyewitness accounts, shaky videos, and out-of-focus photos. That probably doesn’t qualify as research, and certainly isn’t science.

Meldrum, who works in the department of biological sciences at Idaho State University, has a large collection of footprints, which fails to impress his colleagues. For instance, anthropologist David Daegling of the University of Florida insists that quality trumps quantity. He said, “Even if you have a million pieces of evidence, if all the evidence is inconclusive, you can’t count it all up to make something conclusive.”

Ascribing to Bigfoot a footprint or hair of unknown origin is the appeal to ignorance. Because we can’t prove what animal it came from or that it’s fake, proponents count this as evidence he’s real. This highlights a major issue with chasing Bigfoot. We’ve never found one, so we don’t know what kind of impression it would leave. This is a micro example of the lack of falsifiability that encompasses the entire field.

While Bigfoot is primarily associated with the Pacific northwest, there are Texans who aren’t about to let something that big be claimed by someone else. Woodape.org focuses its attentions on a southern Sasquatch, mostly residing in Texas, but also in Louisiana, Arkansas, and elsewhere. Woodape attempts a benevolent spin by announcing they are here to save the beasts. While Woodape never expressly states Bigfoot is real, its mission to save it necessitates there be at least one male and one female to rescue. Also, it offers a physical description and habitat for Bigfoot, treating it as real and not speculative. As an aside, if they want the animal to avoid extinction, it is best they ensure that man NOT find it.

Woodape.org also tries the appeal to science: “Much remains to be learned about Earth and the many species that inhabit it.” This is true, and we should continue the search for undiscovered animals and the expansion of zoology. But there are far better ways to do this than scampering after a giant ape. Places like Borneo, Brazil’s southern Atlantic Coast, and Papua New Guinea are teeming with undiscovered creatures, with hundreds being found every year.

OK, not everyone has the time and resources for these journeys. But every U.S. region likely features undiscovered critters. But finding one requires learning the anatomical features, breeding habits, diet, camouflage, habitats, mating calls, and place in the food chain of existing animals. If truly wanting to add to the discovery of new creatures, this is the way to go. By contrast, those desperately seeking Sasquatch praise science while failing to honor its Method and tactics.

For instance, Woodape puts heavy emphasis on eyewitness reports, citing 3,000 sightings of the animal or its tracks. A live creature or complete carcass would be proof. A substantial patch of fur or bones would be strong evidence. Eyewitnesses and reports of shrieks are weak evidence. And these 3,000 pieces of weak evidence do not add up to one strong piece. Until 2014, there had been no reported sightings, sounds, disturbed vegetation, tracks, or other evidence that the ampulex dementor cockroach wasp existed. Then it was found in the Mekong Delta, and this one piece of evidence outweighed the thousands of pieces of evidence that Bigfoot exists.

Woodape.org further claims there are “remarkably consistent physical descriptions of these creatures.” In truth, there is quite a bit of variety in terms of its alleged size, footprints, body covering, gait, sounds, and color. But even 500 precise accounts would still fall into the weak evidence category. Just like the plural of anecdote is not data, the plural of eyewitnesses is not captured specimen. Furthermore, Ben Roesch of the Cryptozoological Review has noted anecdotes are not reproducible, testable, or falsifiable, and are therefore outside the scientific process. There’s also the matter of eyewitness unreliability, which is addressed in depth here.

There is a good chance many of the sightings were of a black bear. An ecological niche model was produced using nine climate variables in areas where Bigfoot reports were most common, and they corresponded to where black bears are most concentrated.

Woodape also finds relevance in the “sincerity and credibility of eyewitnesses, some of whom are law enforcement officers and experienced outdoor workers, such as wildlife and fisheries officials.” No amount of belief makes anything true and the appeal to authority is a logical fallacy. Sincerity and career choice are not proof of Bigfoot and have no place on a site that purports to be executing a scientific study of the subject.

Nor would a serious scientific undertaking put relevance in the 1967 film shot by Roger Patterson and Bob Gimlin, especially with this logic: “No one has demonstrated convincing arguments or recreations that begin to cast serious doubt on the validity of the animal shown in the film.” That’s a dubious claim, as there have been arguments made that the movement is humanlike and that there seems to be a zipper on the creature. The larger point, however, is that the onus remains on the person making the claim.

If the animal was real, he would have had to make it to California from Asia or Africa because he has no ancestors here. There has never been a fossil found of a North American primate. This is not just one type of animal, but an entire order. Woodape dismisses this for the same reason it discounts the lack of live captures:  There are so few of them. But this rarity would make it even less likely that an entire species has been maintained for hundreds of years, managing to roam safely from Vancouver to the Bayou. Imagine the sustenance a creature this size would need for such a journey. Then multiply that by the number in the pack. That’s why anthropologist Nina Jablonski insists there are insufficient food resources to support such a large mammal. Woodape’s retort is that Native American tribes once lived in these areas. That’s solid thinking, once they find Sasquatch in a tepee with a bow and arrow.

Bigfoot enthusiasts will point out that a skin of the Giant Panda was not produced until 1869 and a skin attached to a living one was not found until 1927. They are also fond of referencing the lowland gorilla, okapi, and Komodo dragon. This allows them to couch their hide-and-seek game as one of discovery. But to insist or strongly insinuate a beast exists, then seek supporting evidence is not scientific. New species are discovered all the time, using solid predictive science, not wishful thinking and overexcited forest treks prompted by a stranger’s e-mail. Another reason the comparison falls flat is because the other animals were found without cell phone cameras, night vision devices, reality shows, and organizations specifically set up to catch them.

Every animal was a cryptid at one time, so looking for new creatures is legitimate. But anthropologists don’t use report forms, they learn taxonomy and anatomy, publish their findings and welcome tough questions. Except for Meldrum, Bigfoot hunters are not well-versed in anthropology and they do not submit their findings for peer review, though this is somewhat excused by them having no findings. As to their response to tough questions, I’ll let Bukwasboo handle this one: “UGGGGHH!!!!!”

And unlike those undertaking serious scientific pursuits, Bigfoot hunters are unable to point to an example of what they are studying. Most tellingly, scientists continually try to prove themselves wrong, while those pursuing Bigfoot continually try to prove themselves right.

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“Bad-natured” (Appeal to Nature fallacy)

EATINGTREE

The appeal to nature is a frequent ploy of those promoting some cure, food, or cosmetic. The word “natural” is prominently displayed in the ads or on the product’s unnatural packaging. It is insinuated by the sellers that natural equals good, and they hope the consumer assumes this as well. They try to take advantage of the word’s positive connotations, such as seen in natural athlete, natural beauty, or naturally gifted. By contrast, artificial can be equated with phony, and unnatural can mean forced or awkward.

But occurring in or being produced by nature is neither a good nor bad quality. Sleep and water are natural and necessary for living. Clothing and insulin are unnatural, but our life would be much worse without the former and would be over for a diabetic without the latter. Earthquakes and box jellyfish venom are natural manifestations no one wants to get close to, while leaked Chernobyl radiation was a manmade disaster. And since the natural and unnatural worlds both have positive and negative contributions, it is overly optimistic to think nature can keep a person healthy and happy. Even an unending supply of such products will fail to arrest the natural fate of organisms, death.

One of the best examples of how spurious the appeal to nature is comes from an unintended source. American Spirit tobacco boasts of its products’ all-natural ingredients in an ad reminiscent of a satirical one published in National Lampoon.

Next, let’s consider a plant even worse than tobacco. Foxglove perennials contain toxins that would disrupt the heartbeat if ingested in sufficient quantity. However, the synthetic version of the plant’s cardiac glycosides can be beneficial for patients with heart arrhythmias. So the natural foxglove is harmful, but a synthetic drug developed by isolating, extracting, and purifying certain chemicals in it is helpful. Similarly, mosquito bites and any subsequent malaria are natural, while mosquito repellent and malaria pills are unnatural.

Given all this, why does the appeal to nature work on so many? For some people, it’s simply because they’ve never considered the above examples and they would be convinced once they realized nature is more than an antelope coming down a fern-covered mountain to drink from a flowing stream.

For the hard core nature advocates, however, it’s like any prejudice and is a great timesaver. They can decree natural to be good and unnatural to be bad, so there’s no need to worry about what’s healthy, beneficial, or safe. Like any prejudice, the accuracy in applying it will be sporadic at best. Depending on the type of mushroom one encounters, it may be a source of a little protein or a lot of poison.

“It’s good because it’s natural,” is circular reasoning since it assumes what one is claiming to prove and the conclusion is entailed in the premise. One example of this faulty logic centers on raspberry ketones. Both the ketones from the natural berry and a synthetic counterpart have a chemical structure of C10 H12 O2. Gleefully munching raspberries with these ketones while indignantly refusing a perfume containing the same ones is nonsensical.

Whether this thinking is dangerous depends on how far one takes it. If curmucin is swallowed in hopes of stopping a stomachache, it’s no big deal, it’s just pointless. The danger would come if the stomachache turns out to be stomach cancer and the natural treatment continues. The Skeptic’s Dictionary has catalogued alleged cancer treatments based on the likes of seeds, herbs, and teas. I call these fatal cures and the list is as long as it is disturbing. Meanwhile, the website for Healing Cancer Naturally promises to cure the disease by targeting charkas, chi, and meridians. In this case, it seems like a more honest claim would be “Healing Cancer Supernaturally.”

When the Food Babe went after Kraft Macaroni and Cheese, she wrote that it is “manmade in a lab with chemicals derived from petroleum, a crude oil product, which is also used in gasoline, diesel fuel, asphalt, and tar.” Yet crude oil occurs naturally, so go ahead and mix it with your organic kale smoothie, Babe.

She, Zen Honeycutt, and Kate Tieje are the result of an unusual combination of scientific advancement and scientific ignorance. The Internet makes it possible for anyone to market lies as truths and peddle them to an audience unaware of basic science. In the crude oil example, the Food Babe ignores that the same chemicals can be used safely for many purposes. Its properties change depending on what it’s mixed with. She gets away with this because the people she’s addressing don’t know what a chemical reaction is.

Some natural advocates point out that diseases were less frequent in a supposedly more natural era. When true, this is because longer life spans means there are more persons susceptible to diseases that primarily hit seniors, such as cancer and heart conditions. If we ever end up with an average life expectancy of 125 years, nearly 100 percent of men will get prostate cancer and it won’t be from a lack of organic blueberries.

Besides this misuse of numbers, there are outright falsehoods, such as sharks being immune to cancer, or the adoption of absurd ideas. Harvey Diamond, for instance, seems to suggest people should live like bears and boars. He writes that, “Animals in nature are magnificently healthy in comparison to the health that we humans experience,” and that zoo animals suffer “many of the problems of humans.”

Zoo animals probably have more diseases, but that’s because their vaccinations and safety from predators allow them to live long enough to get them. While the animals we see in the woods or on the plains are usually spry and healthy, we are only seeing them because of those distinctions. Aging and diseased animals are killed by predators and finished off by scavengers, usually out of human sight. Even if we limit Diamond’s comparison to healthy animals in the wild, humans still have one of the longest life spans. I think I’m seeing a market for the Giant Tortoise in a Redwood Diet.

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“OMG, GMO!” (Genetically Modified Hysteria)

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During the March Against Monsanto, a deranged man in a Guy Fawkes mask composed of synthetic chemicals railed against the use of synthetic chemicals. GMO proponents were called Nazis, ISIS members, criminals, and Monsanto employees, which may have been the worst slur of them all considering what the speakers think of them.

Not all were that looney, however. Some preferred to calmly say that we don’t know enough about GMOs yet, or that more research needs to be done before it goes to the market, or at least that they should be labeled. However, there are 1,783 studies that collectively represent data that shows GMOs present no harm.

This is different, however, from proving that they will always be 100 percent safe under every conceivable situation. Proving the safety of a banana, be it GMO, traditional, or organic, is beyond the scope of science. No study, article, or research could ever prove this. They can only add to data strongly suggesting it.

The tested product is being measured against other items, not against the yardstick of being entirely safe under every condition for eternity. The relative risk or lack thereof is scientifically determined by using sound research methods and peer review, followed by examination of the metadata.

Claiming we need more information is not a testable idea and is not proof of danger, but instead a means of instilling worry and animosity. The anti-GMO crowd tries to take advantage of the impossibility of proving a negative. That’s why a null hypothesis is a faulty approach. A researcher could never prove that playing poker does not cause ALS. If he or she found no connection, this would merely contribute to a body of evidence that points toward this conclusion.

Until someone comes up with a study showing that poker causes ALS, the null hypothesis is what we return to: Poker does not seem to cause ALS. Bertrand Russell and Carl Sagan stated in one form or another that the onus is on the person making a claim. Those who want GMOs banned or labeled need to provide evidence they are dangerous, not just speculate that they might be. That is only slightly better than falsely asserting they have been proven dangerous, such as is being done by the Corn Nut in the top photo. I used it because I believe in getting out of the way when an opponent is making himself look ridiculous.

Do we know that getting a green belt in karate doesn’t cause anxiety? Do we know that a surge in B’s in English class doesn’t increase pollution? No and no. Yet no one expresses fear of the hypothetical breakdowns of mental stability or air quality, even though there are no studies showing otherwise. By contrast, nearly 1,800 studies make a collection of data that strongly suggests GMOs are safe. And we know that its products include golden rice, which could provide Third World children with regular doses of Vitamin A if fear-based beaureacracy could be overcome. GMOs also saved the Hawaiian papaya and can make crops more drought- and pest-resistant.

Still, the anti-GMO side remains standing, albeit on shaky ground. One company gloats that its strawberries are non-GMO, a redundancy since there are no GMO strawberries. They paste a non-GMO label on the packaging that also mentions their fruit is natural. In truth, however, the strawberries are a hybrid that has been substantially modified. It was unnatural human acts that rendered them delicious and nutritious.

The four unnatural methods of potentially improving seeds are selective breeding, interspecies breeding, mutagenesis, and genetic modification. GMOs involve one to three genes and are tested for safety before they are allowed to be sold. The other three methods affect 10,000 to 300,000 genes, are not tested, and are unchallenged by the self-appointed food safety czars.

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“Charlie and the Fruitcake Factory” (Demon conjuring)

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The anti-science movement includes those objecting to GMOs, vaccines, evolution, astronomy, heliocentrism, and a round Earth. Now welcome to the club the anti-gravity gang. Led by Joshua Feuerstein, these folks reject the description of gravity as a natural phenomenon and insist it is a far darker force.

That is their explanation for the latest divination craze, “Charlie, Charlie.” To participate, one hexagon-shaped pencil is placed on top of another, the bottom pencil resting on a piece of paper. The paper is broken into four quadrants, with words on each square.

Because of the precarious way the top pencil is positioned, a breath or vibration will cause it to rotate. But Feuerstein denies this is due to gravity and the laws of physics. He maintains a demon has been summoned to swing the writing utensil. Behold, Satan in all his graphite glory.

I understand middle school kids being spooked by a stationary object suddenly swaying, especially if it happens by candlelight in the presence of friends. I’m far less charitable to the fully-grown Feuerstein, who presents this game as irrefutable proof of demonic power. On his Facebook page, he chides those who insist a naturalistic explanation will suffice.

The top pencil is placed so gingerly that it can take a while to get the juxtaposition right. But eventually it stays put and the divinatory session begins with words of “Charlie, Charlie, are you here,” or a similar summons. It’s amazing how demons always speak the same language as those conjuring them.

The alleged backstory involves a Mexican demon, which would require allowing that spirits have nationalities. It is also said to go back centuries, though there is no evidence this is anything beyond a contemporary trend. It is, however, the latest in a long tradition of divination that includes barley cakes, tea leaves, Tarot cards, Bloody Mary, and Ouija Boards. These ideas have survived far longer than would seem possible. Science has given us Germ Theory, Pasteurization, the eradication of smallpox, the unlocking of the atom and electron, and launched a manmade object that has left the solar system. And yet educated adults in the 21st Century insist that a moving pencil is caused not by precarious placement and air, but by an invisible monster.

But nothing extraordinary is going on and no supernatural powers are being accessed. If they were, only one pencil would be needed and it could move without being precariously balanced. Or the demon could bring his own pencil. Or he could open his serpent mouth. For all of the terrifying power Feuerstein and fellow fruitcakes attribute to demons, the devilish minions are incapable of speech. They need seventh-graders with pencils to serve as the conduit.

The sign that there’s nothing supernatural about these types of happenings is that they always occur under restricting, specific conditions. James Hryrick claimed telepathy, but his ability to move objects was limited to nearby telephone book pages. His otherworldly talents vanished when he attempted to slip them by James Randi. Randi exposed the ruse by placing Styrofoam peanuts around the pages. Hyrick’s only ability was subtle breathing, which was revealed when the peanuts moved with the pages.

Similarly, mediums at a séance claim that spirits will enter the room and ring bells or move objects. They allow their wrists to be tied to the chair, and the duped person is permitted to place his feet on those of the medium. The stipulation, however, is that the lights be turned off. This allows the medium to be unseen when he removes his hands from the arm rests, which had been loosened beforehand. Likewise, he removes his feet from his shoes, which had been glued to the floor and hollowed in the back.

In this case, the stipulation is that it be two pencils placed just so. Putting one fork down in place of two pencils won’t work. I experimented a few times by placing a pencil on top of another, and it stayed motionless for as long as I did nothing. But a gust of breath or waving motion caused it to swing. As a control, I tried moving it by summoning the Charlie demon, but the Gateway to Hell remained shut. Maybe if I had tried it in Spanish.

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“Lyme aid” (Chronic Lyme Disease)

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In an article for Huffington Post, Suzy Cohen warned readers they were in danger of Chronic Lyme Disease if they had been in a Lyme-prone area, owned a dog or cat, had lain in the grass, or traipsed through the woods. This conservatively puts 95 percent of the population at risk.

To tell if one has it, Cohen advises to be on the lookout for these symptoms: fatigue, stiffness, headaches, tinnitus, anemia, dizziness, confusion, tingling, numbness, forgetfulness, sleeplessness, chest pain, palpitations, anxiety, depression, light and sound sensitivity, and joint and muscle pain. Persons will also have shortness of breath after reciting that list. It probably applies to 100 percent of us, as anyone qualifies if they’ve had one night of insomnia, one instance of forgetfulness, or one backache.

This large symptom umbrella has allowed Dr. Richard Horowitz to diagnose 12,000 patients with the disease. Consider how loose a definition this requires. If just one-quarter of one percent of the country’s doctors diagnosed the same number of patients as Horowitz did, everyone in the country would be said to be afflicted with Chronic Lyme Disease.

Horowitz claims his treatment can detoxify, boost the immune system, and remove heavy metals. One cannot detoxify, except by having a working liver and kidneys. Boosting the immune system is impossible except in extreme cases involving conditions much more serious than Lyme disease, such as late-stage cancer or HIV positivity. As to heavy metals, if a person needs arsenic, iron, or lead removed, these are life-threatening conditions. The patient should be in the emergency room, not thumbing through People at the holistic health clinic.

Most CLD treatment practitioners will usually say that continual antibiotic therapy is the only way to attack it. But they won’t claim to cure it, because that would be the end of it. Treatment, by contrast, can continue until the patient dies or the money runs out.

Those offering CLD treatment create the condition, stoke the fears, and then offer the solution in exchange for a lifetime of loyalty and money. So it’s pretty much like a religion, except you go to a clinic, not a temple.

Still, patients with unexplained symptoms welcome the diagnosis since it offers an answer and a path to resolution. One of the main causes of stress is lack of information. In the case of unexplained illnesses, this vacuum can be filled with a diagnosis of Chromic Lyme Disease, so the patient feels relieved. It also offers an alternative medicine trifecta by being immediate, absolute, and cheap. It’s appealing for the practitioner as well. Like chiropractic, essential oils, and energy healing, it promises a quick fix, but also keeps the patient coming back, since any symptom is a sign that follow-up work is need. Unlike the others, however, CLD treatment can be dangerous or even deadly, since the treatment program is a continual influx of antibiotics. The Centers For Disease Control warns that this prolonged use can spur the growth of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

The most obvious sign of Lyme disease is an increasing rash that is red and circular, not unlike a bull’s-eye. It is likely accompanied by extreme fatigue, fever, chills, sweat, and nausea. A two-step protocol using a single blood sample will determine if the patient has the disease. If so, a brief course of antibiotics will take care of it, as it is well-established that Lyme disease is a bacterial illness transmitted by ticks.

By contrast, CLD has no science-based evidence and features an unending antibiotic treatment, augmented by several alternative medicine methods. These can be labeled holistic, integrative, complementary, or spiritual. This treatment is given by persons often calling themselves consultants. It’s unclear who they are consulting, but it’s not researchers conducting double blind studies. Two randomized trials published in the New England Journal of Medicine showed that long-term antibiotic treatment performed no better than placebos for healing symptoms blamed on CLD.

The alternative medicine methods appeal to the afflicted because one can continually ride the CLD carousel, regardless of how unproven or unlikely a treatment is. There are ointments, oils, and Reiki, creating a potpourri of potions, lotions, and motions to choose from.

In his investigation of CLD, Dr. Mark Crislip found more than 30 treatments offered, a dead giveaway that the field is bogus. The same patient with allegedly the same disease could get six vastly different treatments from six different clinicians. These include healings based on oxygen, radiation, nutrition, chelation, homeopathy, and stem cell transplants. The reason this net is so wide is because the disease is made-up, so there’s no standard way to deal with it. In treating real diseases, authentic doctors can use various methods, but they’re in the same ballpark. By contrast, those treating Chronic Lyme Disease aren’t even playing the same sport.

The unethical act of treating a nonexistent illness is exacerbated because it keeps the patient from being properly diagnosed. The patient will never truly get better since illnesses will always come creeping back, with any symptom being labeled another CLD flare-up. As for me, I have Chronic Chronic Lyme Disease Fatigue.

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“Prophe-sighed” (Biblical prophecy)

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Supporters of Biblical prophecy assert that the events were correctly predicted beforehand. This is used to bolster claims of the Bible’s authenticity and divine authorship.

The most readily apparent problem is that of a source claiming to be its own confirmation. If a contemporary seer produced writings with specific references to 9/11, Michael Jackson’s date of death, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, then claimed to have penned all this in 1995, the unsubstantiated nature of this assertion would be obvious. By contrast, if he made a public pronouncement of all this in 1995, and multiple sources were there to document him doing so, this would be substantial proof of his ability.

With the Bible, it is very difficult to determine precisely when its different chapters were written, so it requires a great accommodation to credit prophecies with having been made before the event. But even if the dates could be verified, the nature of Biblical prophecies makes declaring them valid problematic. Correctly predicting the future is an extraordinary claim, so giving credence to this ability requires that the prophecies be precise and about something improbable or unknowable. “A great king shall rise in the east,” is far too vague, while “There will be wars and droughts” describes the history of the world so far, and thus predicting that those calamities will continue requires no special talent.

Several Old Testament prophecies failed to come true, but I will charitably overlook some of these since they COULD still happen. For instance, Egypt could become a barren wasteland, the Nile could still dry up, and Egyptians may eventually adopt the Canaanite language. As an aside, Egyptians take such a beating in the Bible that it’s no wonder they worshipped cats instead.

While the events in these Egyptian-centered prophecies could still be fulfilled, other future visions centered on people who died without the events happening. In the 26th chapter of Ezekiel, God promised Nebuchadnezzar that his raid on Tyre will be so complete that the city will be flattened and forever wiped out. However, Nebuchadnezzar and Tyre reached a compromise after a 13-year war, and the city still stands in Lebanon.

Then In Isaiah 7, God tells the king of Judah he will be protected from his enemies, yet the king suffers harm from them in II Chronicles 28:1-8. When Abram entered Canaan, God promised him in Genesis 12:7 that he would bless his offspring with the land. However, per Hebrews 11:13, they were never given this inheritance. God also told David that Solomon’s descendants will rule in Judah forever (II Samuel 7:13-16). Yet this line ended when the Babylonians overthrew King Zedekiah.

OK, so Biblical writers whiffed on these, but what about the ones that came true? Some sources claim over 300 prophecies have been fulfilled. And they have been, as long as one has an extremely flexible definition of fulfilled and some highly-creative interpretation skills.

For instance, God said of Cyrus in Isaiah 45:1, “whose right hand I have holden, to subdue nations before him I will loose the loins of kings, to open before him the two leaved gates; and the gates shall not be shut.” Some interpret this to refer to Persia invading Babylon, even though neither country is mentioned in this passage, nor is a time frame offered. Accompanying this claim is a second assertion that the prophecy was made 140 years before the attack. However, there is no way to determine this, as Isaiah was written over a period of several decades, including some years in which the tensions between Persia and Babylon were beginning to bubble. In this sense, even a correct prophecy would be no more chilling than an observer predicting the German invasion of Poland in 1937.

Here’s why all this happened. The New Testament authors, particularly of the gospels and Acts, were attempting to market their upstart religion. They were competing against established brands such as Baal, Ra, and Horus. They needed to be distinctive, so they lifted ancient scriptures and twisted them completely out of context and tried to cram it into contemporary events.

The most energetic of these writers was Matthew, who in his shoehorning attempts often got sloppy with the original text. For instance, he alleges that Jesus being born in Bethlehem fulfills Micah 5:2. But that passage reads, “Bethlehem Ephrathah, though you are small among the clans of Judah, out of you will come for me one who will be ruler over Israel.” So this refers to the Bethlehem Ephrathah clan, not the Israeli city.

Then Matthew 2:15 cites Jesus’ return from Egypt as being the fulfillment of this prophecy: “And there until the death of Herod: that it might be fulfilled which was spoken of the Lord by the prophet, saying, Out of Egypt have I called my son.” This quotes Hosea 1:1, but the entire verse reads, “When Israel was a child, I loved him, and out of Egypt I called my son.” So Hosea 1:1 is not a prophecy of Jesus leaving Egypt, but a reference to the Israeli exodus.

Next, let’s consider the claim in John 19:37 that Jesus being pierced during his execution fulfilled Zechariah 12:10, which reads, “They shall look on him whom they pierced.” Look, however, at the entire verse: “And I will pour upon the house of David, and upon the inhabitants of Jerusalem, the spirit of grace and of supplications: and they shall look upon me whom they have pierced, and they shall mourn for him, as one mourns for his only son, and shall be in bitterness for him, as one that is in bitterness for his firstborn.” When John cites this verse, he leaves out the word “me.” So this would require the prophecy to have been made by Jesus hundreds of years before his birth, a miracle indeed. Moreover, Zechariah 12 is a tale of an invading Army. No one reading the account at the time it was written would have taken it to be portending a messiah’s flesh wound.

In the second and 13th chapters of Acts, Luke cites Psalms 16:8-10 as evidence of the resurrection. The psalmist had written, “I have set Yahweh always before me: Because He is at my right hand, I shall not be moved. Therefore my heart is glad, and my glory rejoices; My flesh also will rest in hope. For You will not leave my soul in Sheol, Nor will You allow Your Holy One to see corruption.”

This was a first-hand account of a writer’s concern over his current state. There is nothing to indicate it was a prophecy about a man rising again to sit beside God, nor even a suggestion anyone has died.

We see more of this extreme pretzel logic in Matthew 2:18, where the author claims Herod’s order to slaughter all boys two and under was presaged in this verse from Jeremiah: “A voice was heard in Ramah, Lamentation, weeping, and great mourning, Rachel weeping for her children, refusing to be comforted, Because they are no more.” Yet, this passage was addressing the Jewish dispersion brought on by the Babylonian occupation, not predicting a mass killing of toddlers. Jeremiah goes onto guarantee the return of these children, eliminating any chance it was referring to murder victims. Matthew was the precursor to Jack Van Impe, as he tried to make any contemporary event fit, no matter how far removed it was from the original context.

Perhaps the most frequently cited prophecy stems from Matthew 1:23, with the claim that Isaiah 7:13-14 foreshadowed the birth of Jesus. However, this verse involved Isaiah talking with King Ahaz about an alliance formed against him by Syria and Israel. (The dude who pulled that off gets my vote for Diplomat of the Millennium).

Isaiah reassures Ahaz that the alliance will fail: “Yahweh Himself will give you a sign: Behold, the virgin shall conceive, and bear a Son, and shall call his name Immanuel.” This stipulated that a baby named Immanuel, born in Ahaz’s time, would be a good luck sign for the king. It is absurd to deduce that this refers to a baby named Jesus born seven centuries later and intended to be good luck for all humanity.

As to the seemingly more relevant virgin birth reference, this is the result of a transcribing error. The Hebrew word for “young woman” was mistranslated as “virgin” when being copied into Greek.

I only found one alleged prophecy that was specific, unknowable beforehand, and which definitely occurred: The assassination of Sennacherib in II Kings. The substantial trouble is that there is no way to determine when it was written. There are some references in II Kings to events that took place after the assassination, so there’s no way to tell if this was a genuine prophecy or a writing made after the fact to make it look like such. As mentioned earlier in the post, there is a glaring problem with a book claiming to be its own confirmation.