by

“Truly Large Numbing” (Coincidence and misuse of numbers)

IN SQUAREListening to 75 songs playing at random in my CD player, I wondered how many orders it could go in. Finding the answer would be easy. I needed merely to e-mail a mathematics Ph.D. that I knew.

I don’t know what the number was called, but recall that it was over 2.4 billion googol. That is a Truly Large Number, which is the best segue I can come up with for moving into the meat of this topic. We’ll look at the Law of Truly Large Numbers and see how it relates to the skeptic movement.

The Ph. D., who incidentally was also the best miniature golf player I’ve ever known (reckon he was using geometry), was a good professor, as he explained the answer. 75 tracks could be the first one played, 74 could be the second, 73 the third, and so on. So the answer was arrived at by multiplying 75 x 74 x 73 x 72, all the way to x 2. What had been an astronomical number shrouded in mystery and awe became an astronomical number that I understood.

I have plenty of company in my mathematics ignorance. If you’re in a room with 25 persons, many people think the chance of any two of them sharing the same birthday would be just one in 24, or about two percent. But it’s not just one person who has a one in 24 chance of having someone with the same birthday. There are 24 persons with that one-in-24 chance. That bumps the chance that at least two of them share the same birthday to just past 50 percent.

I am substantially out of my element when dealing with advanced mathematics, but I recognize when digits are being misused, and it’s a regular occurrence when it involves Truly Large Numbers. The most frequent abusers are mediums and fortune tellers, but conspiracy theorists and creationists also get in on the numerical chicanery.

How this can be exploited was shown by British illusionist and TV personality Derren Brown. He presented a system for winning horse racing bets. He had thousands of volunteers, then subsequently followed the winners. At the end, only the top performer was presented on TV, with the system seemingly vindicated.

The Law of Truly Large Numbers states with a large enough sample, many odd coincidences are likely to occur. More simply, with billions of people doing hundreds of things a day, it would be the most amazing thing ever if nothing amazing happened. This can be overlooked because people tend to seek meaning in life and prefer order over randomness.

But drawing supernatural conclusions relies on the Appeal to Ignorance. When making this appeal, the proponent, probably in all caps, will insist an occurrence is so unlikely that there can be no other explanation. But mathematician and author John Allen Paulos clarifies that rarity isn’t evidence. Imagine someone (let’s make it Harpo Marx) shuffling and turning over 52 playing cards. Whatever order Harpo lays them in, there was about a one in a quarter-googol chance of that being the sequence when he began. Paulos notes it would be nonsense to conclude that Harpo could not have dealt them that way because the sequence was so improbable.

Anyone could see the absurdity of that conclusion. But it’s different when dealing with occurrences that have personal meaning. Then, the tendency is to ascribe genuine power to what the palm reader told you, what you prayed about, or what the telephone psychic predicted. In these instances, one holds tight to the subjective validation, and cognitive dissonance won’t let it go.

Uri Geller put down his bent spoons long enough to come up with a long list of “stunning coincidences” regarding the Sept. 11 attacks that added up to 11. One example: “September 11th is the 254th day of the year: 2+5+4 = 11.” Skeptic leader Robert Carroll countered with a list that contained many noncoincidences that added up to something other than 11.

A person may dream of an airplane crash the night before a wreck happens. With six billion people having multiple dreams each night, someone is going to have a dream about an airplane crash every day. I’ve had over 100 myself. At some point, someone will probably also hit on the place and airline. To call this proof of clairvoyance would require ignoring the many more dreams that don’t come true, or the things that happen without being dreamt about. Also, dreams are often vague or ambiguous, allowing many interpretations.

Highlighting an event’s rarity or unlikelihood is also a hallmark of the creationist. One difference from the others is that it usually also involves the misapplication of science principles. One example, from darwinsimrefuted.com: “For a 300-molecule-long protein to form by total random chance would be a one in 10 to the 390th power occurrence.” Throw in a straw man or two and the creationist instantly vanquishes evolution and biology. The misrepresentation here is that everything in the process is random. In actuality, evolution is a very slow process with many incremental steps, overseen by natural selection. As to the Truly Large Number correlation, I defer to to evolutionfaq.com: “In the prebiotic oceans of early Earth, there were billions of trials taking place simultaneously as the oceans, rich in amino acids, were continuously churned by the tidal forces of the moon and the harsh weather conditions of Earth. Considered in this more comprehensive and inclusive way, the true odds are revealed.”

This month, an Israeli soldier was shot, with the bullet hitting a grenade in his pocket. The bullet was blocked by the grenade, which failed to detonate. This made the social media rounds, with prayer cited as the reason. There was no mention of the thousands of persons slaughtered in the conflict in spite of all this prayer. The dud grenade was cited as proof of miracles, without reference to the millions of non-miracle working grenades over the past century.

Highly improbable does not mean impossible, as every winning lottery ticket demonstrates. It also doesn’t mean anything is at work beyond the Law of Truly Large Numbers.

by

“Bio-eccentric” (Biocentrism)

CHICKENEGGBiocentrism is a philosophy masquerading as a hybrid of astronomy, biology, physics, and physiology. Its main tenet is that life or consciousness created the universe, not the other way around. It couches itself in scientific terms and its main proponent is a prominent professor. But it makes no testable theories and relies on misinterpretation of physical principles. Arizona State University physicist Lawrence Krauss has said it makes for some interesting thinking, but has no scientific relevance.

The man who came up with the idea is Robert Lanza. He claims positions espoused by Descartes and Kant were primitive biocentrism. This shows an appeal to irrelevant authority, one of many logical fallacies he commits.

Lanza has had an accomplished career, including being on the team that cloned the world’s first early stage human embryos. He is an adjunct professor at the Wake Forest University School of Medicine. He still deals in legitimate science and research, but when his focus shifts to biocentrism, he morphs into Deepak Chopra Light. In fact, he can do more damage than his New Age sidekick. His wide-ranging scientific knowledge and impressive résumé could persuade incredulous persons who would otherwise dismiss the idea. He regularly transitions from scientifically proven facts to wild speculation without acknowledging the quantum leap.

For instance, he wrote: “Science cannot explain why the laws of physics are exactly balanced for animal life to exist. If the Big Bang had been one-part-in-a billion more powerful, it would have rushed out too fast for the galaxies to form and for life to begin. If the strong nuclear force were decreased by two percent, atomic nuclei wouldn’t hold together. Hydrogen would be the only atom in the universe.”

While all this is likely true, he reaches this conclusion: “These are just three of more than 200 physical parameters within the solar system and universe so exact that they cannot be random.”

This relies on the appeal to ignorance. Because we can’t show why his position could never be true, the default position is that it’s accurate. The onus remains on Lanza to bolster his claim with evidence. It’s not on others to disprove it.

His only fully legitimate claim is positing that we don’t understand where the universe came from. Even the Big Bang is an incomplete answer because it doesn’t explain what was the source of the original infinitesimal material or why it blew up. But that has no relevance on what he delves into next. He claims the universe only exists when being observed by a consciousness. This would mean that an exoplanet being detected for the first time only came into existence when the first astronomer saw/created it.

Then he rattles off these: “a) Scientists do not understand consciousness, b) We don’t know why the laws of the universe are fine-tuned to allow life to exist, and c) Space and time are mysterious.”

Combining the first point with his overarching position, he is arguing that something we can’t even understand can be known to be the key to creating life, space, and time. Going further, he deduces that all these mysteries prove that consciousness creates reality, a position that could charitably be called speculative. Lanza here is making a classic logical fallacy of pseudoscience: Confusing the unexplained with the inexplicable.

Observers can influence surroundings, as demonstrated by the Uncertainty Principle. But this is the result of one’s presence in tightly controlled quantum experiments. It is a non sequitur to use this as proof that consciousness controls macroscopic conditions. He even argues that a kitchen is not there unless someone sees it. Nothing in quantum mechanics supports this position. The kitchen will be there whether you’re restocking your Oreo supply or away on vacation. Security cameras obliterate this idea, unless an ad hoc theory is developed that film also has consciousness.

This is not his only misinterpretation of scientific ideas. He writes, “Consider the color and brightness of everything you see. Light doesn’t have any color or brightness at all. Nothing remotely resembling what you see could be present without your consciousness.” Here, we see another kernel of truth in a cob of nonsense. The sensory experience of color is subjective, but the properties of light are part of nature.

In another misuse of data, he writes, “We think it feels hot and humid, but to a tropical frog it would feel cold and dry.” When pointing out an amphibian to my sons on an 85 degree day, the comfort level will be different for the observed and the observers. But that temperature is determined by the kinetic energy of molecules, not some cosmic subjectivity. The only impact observers have on temperatures is that too many of them in a room will make it hotter.

Lanza also writes, “Space and time are simply the mind’s tools for putting everything together.” That seems a little cryptic, but I suppose we could allow it. We cannot, however, conclude that the mind using space and time to make sense of it all equates to the mind creating those phenomenon.

In short, the theory amounts to a hodgepodge of loosely related, mostly untestable ideas that assemble to form a chicken-egg conundrum since neither consciousness nor the universe could exist before the other does.

by

“Polterguise” (Ghost hunting)

polterguisepicAlthough most people who believe in ghosts fear them, the poltergeists and less malevolent spirits may paradoxically be offering comfort. That’s because belief in ghosts can stem from an aversion to mortality and can serve as a coping mechanism when a loved one dies.

But while believers may get reassurance from the overarching concept, the primary emotion in individual manifestations is fear. That is also the impetus driving the modern ghost hunting movement. Although poorly-defined technical terms have appeared over the last couple of decades and the field is awash in anecdotes, there is no scientific evidence for ghosts. As such, trying to track down and capture them would seem extremely arduous at best. Thirty years ago, the idea of ghostbusting was so silly that a blockbuster comedy centered on the idea. While it is no more feasible now, persons are making their living off the idea and a host of television shows are dedicated to the concept.

Even the most fervent believers offer no idea for what would constitute proof, how a capture would take place, or how to dialogue effectively with a deceased spirit. There have been hundreds of documented hunts with nary a capture. Any draft, squeak, knock, or feeling of dread constitutes evidence since no other solution is considered.

Subjective validation and communal reinforcement sustain this field. The first step in the pattern is the person becoming convinced their place is haunted. Then a ghost hunter with an authoritative-sounding title shows up sporting electronic equipment. Any electric current or funny noise that gets picked up counts as proof. The sounds are highly subject to interpretation, so only the most sinister or spooky translations of ghost speak are heard. There was even a case where ghosts in a German castle were said to be speaking English. Garbled noise or words that don’t fit the narrative are tossed asunder.

The ghost hunter invariably confirms there is a spirit present, galvanizing the homeowner’s belief and heightening the fear. This despite there being no training or standards required for ghost hunting, and even though the electronic equipment is not being used for its intended purpose.

It all has a deleterious effect on the homeowner. Skeptic Kenneth Biddle relates the story of man who thought his place was haunted. He had strange experiences that he couldn’t explain and failed to realize that unexplained does not mean inexplicable. If fact, Biddle deduced that allegedly mysterious movements were the last remnants of a car shadow. Faint voices with occasional chilling laughter proved to be coming from a room upstairs next door.

However, the homeowner’s girlfriend insisted the place was haunted, and pointed out she could detect a ghostly presence. In the ghost hunting field, if you think you sense a ghost, it’s evidence you’ve got the power.

The homeowner and two ghost hunters were sure it was the previous homeowner, which is almost always the case. The ghosts are never in an apartment, a field, or the 7-11. Despite being freed from their bodies (though somehow still wearing clothes) and having the ability to travel anywhere in the world for free, they spend an eternity in the same place. This consistency is a sign of the communal reinforcement and group think endemic in the ghost hunting community.

In the Biddle case, the ghost hunters offered that bricks wrapped in tinfoil throughout the house would have been used by the previous owner to ward off demons. The poor man bought it, as he was so subject to suggestion that he had lost all ability to reason and think independently.

This creates a cycle where you are forever looking for and expecting anomalies. When you think another strange incident has happened, you become stressed, causing muscles to tighten, your heartbeat and blood pressure to increase, and your senses to shoot to a heightened state of alert. This psychosomatic panic is itself further evidence for a ghost. In the case of the man Biddle knew, he sold his house for a loss.

While a ghost hunter is going to have an incentive to declare a house haunted, I have not detected much fraud in the business. Instead, ghost hunters are mostly a self-deceived lot. And owing to the lack of standards and definitions, they never seem to question each others’ methods or findings or seek further proof. Stories are passed from one credulous hunter to another, none of them terribly well-grounded in physics or acoustics.

Purported video and photography evidence are due to distorted shadows, faulty equipment, out of focus objects, and reflections of fixtures. Another factor is apophenia, in which persons see meaningful patterns in random objects and occurrences.

Other than sleep paralysis, most ghostly experiences are self-fulfilling prophecies by people freaking out because they believe so strongly and have been told by someone they trust that their fears are justified.

by

“Done in Down Under” (Kingergetics)

DRQUACK2Kinergetics is a purported type of energy healing. Like kangaroos, it is mostly limited to Australia. It also hops all over the pseudomedicine landscape, incorporating applied kinesiology, thought field therapy, intuitive healing, and therapeutic touch.

Kingertics.com describes the technique as “fast, painless, and natural.” It is certainly fast, as patients shell out $140 for a six-minute session. It is indeed painless, as you are touched by no equipment and receive no injections or other medicine. With regard to the final claim, the site notes that kinergetics uses “the body’s natural healing energy.” Left unexplained is why you would need a practitioner since the body is naturally healing itself.

Like most pseudomedicine, kinergetics makes vague, wide-ranging clams. In this case, they are the most extreme I’ve come across, as it can cure ALL disease and sickness. In a technical sense, it isn’t claiming it will cure measles or chronic fatigue syndrome specifically, but it will unblock the energy flow that is causing these maladies. If the person isn’t cured, another unblocking attempt is needed (and paid for). Typical in the alternative medicine field, any seeming successes are proof of it working, while any failures are due to the patient lacking the proper energy field, harmony flow, or chi balance.

Not everyone doing kinergetics will make claims this broad since there are no prerequisites or education required and, hence, no standards. Practitioners can throw in whatever techniques or terms they want to. One video shows a practitioner whose main tactic was doing what the patient’s shoulder muscles told him to. Other times jaw muscles are used, as the patient will explain what they think they need, and the practitioner will gladly go down this path to a self-fulfilled healing prophecy.

Now we’ll break down kinergetics’ planks: Applied kinesiology, thought field therapy, intuitive healing, and therapeutic touch.

Kinesiology is the study of human movement and is a legitimate field. But in this field, out in left with a hockey stick, is applied kinesiology. It holds that measuring muscle resistance will determine the health of organs and identify nutrient deficiencies. There are at least a half dozen peer-reviewed studies debunking this idea and none that support it. As such, some kinergetics practitioners downplay the muscle claim and highlight that it clears up chi blockage, which appeals to New Agers.

Thought Field Therapy holds that negative emotions cause energy blockage and that removing this block through acupressure points will make the fears go poof, bye-bye. Skeptic Monica Pignotti conducted a controlled experiment in which patients were touched where the therapy says they should be, while other patients were touched in random areas. Both groups reported excellent results, indicating it was all the power of suggestion.

Intuitive healing and therapeutic touch are both based on the idea that you can move your hands all around to do medical magic. They target ideas that can never be tested, such as aura imbalance, chi blockage, and energy misalignment. They rely on confirmation bias, communal reinforcement, and wishful thinking. They also thrive on the regressive fallacy, which is the failure to take into account natural fluctuations when ascribing causes to situations.

The website makes the astounding claim that at the root of all illness and disease are energy imbalances. Practitioners offer no definition of what an energy imbalance is, other than to employ the circular reasoning that illnesses are a sign of it. Your uncle’s pancreatic cancer? Not excessive cell growth, but a lack of harmony in his energy rhythm. That nasty cough you can’t get rid of? Unrelated to your cubicle mate who also had it; your emotional flow needs corrected.

The website makes claims such as this one with no evidence and no definition of unfamiliar terms: “The human body is like a house that is constantly being rebuilt to an energetic plan. If this plan becomes damaged in any way, the body cannot rebuild itself in a healthy manner.” That’s right, folks, we homo sapiens have no immune system, but we’ll build one for you.

Competing for the site’s most hyperbolic point, we have this beauty: “The body stores all memory of everything we have ever done, seen, or experienced.” This site would have you believe you know what you had for lunch on Feb. 1, 1985, and can recall every line of alternative medicine tripe you’ve ever come across.

Going on it reads, “When dealing with allergies it has been found that there may have been a substance present at the time.” Yes, that would be an allergen.

It then lapses into a rare point of accuracy with, “Have you ever heard a song or smelt something that has bought back memories to you? The body is accessing memory associated with these sounds or smells.” After piggybacking on a legitimate point, into segues into this gobbledygook: “In the same way that the body accesses memory associated with a substance, it will react in an unpleasant manner if the original experience was unpleasant.” Instead of seeing an allergist, come to us and we’ll block the negative energy flow.

For evidence of the field’s efficiency, the website cites 300 anonymous testimonials, which is 300 more than the number of medical studies it references.

by

“Let us prey” (Prayer)

HANDCUFFSMy regular readers (both of them) see frequent references to post hoc reasoning, anecdotal claims, and communal reinforcement. These are key elements in alternative medicine, divination, and cryptozoology. But the area where they play the biggest role is prayer.

Prayers with satisfactory results lead to praise of whatever deity was summoned. Unfavorable results lead to more prayer and talk of blessings in disguise, mysterious ways, and infinite wisdom, along with praise to the god in an unending cycle.

But prayer will not impact icy roads, leukemia, a troubled marriage, or Mrs. Osteen’s parking spot. Seemingly answered prayers are the result of Magical Thinking, which is the connecting of two events as though one caused the other, without regard to the casual link or other factors.

Relying on prayer can be unhealthy if used in place of bolstering one’s self-esteem and building resiliency. It can be deadly in the revolting practice of faith healing, where parents let their toddlers die a painful death for the glory of Jesus.

There can be a small measure of value in prayer. When someone KNOWS they are talking to themselves, they can work their way through an issue, analyze a situation, and examine a way forward. Likewise, expressing these thoughts through prayer can have the same results. A praying person thinks they are talking to a god. I think they are talking to a ceiling. But either way, they have access to the ultimate listener. This listener will never belittle, interrupt, or turn the conversation to themselves.

And since prayer can lower stress, it might positively impact stress-related illnesses, as can meditation and yoga. But praying for someone else who has a stress-related illness would be as pointless as chanting “Hari-Om” for them or doing a Modified Cobra position on their behalf. Prayer also has a comforting effect and makes people feel empowered that they are doing something positive.

Belief in the healing power of prayer comes mostly from communal reinforcement and selective thinking. Persons forget or rationalize when prayerful desires conflict with the results. By contrast, successes are highlighted and shared with fellow believers. This is known as confirmation bias.

I know many who swear by the power of prayer, but these people have their limits. Of the thousands of Facebook prayer requests that have come across my news feed, none have asked God to heal the congenitally blind or to grow missing limbs. Facebook death announcements are met with prayers for the family, not a supplication that God will pull a Lazarus on the recently deceased.

I was following on civil online chat between a Christian and an atheist about whether God existed. The Christian wrote, “I’m just really feeling called to talk to you more in-depth. Please send me your e-mail address so we can talk about this further.” I interjected, “Have God send you his e-mail address, then he’ll believe.” A miracle, by its nature, would violate the laws of physics. Show me my great-grandmother back from the dead, a Kindergartner with Muscular Dystrophy jumping up and running around, or someone walking on water to win the James Randi Million Dollar Challenge and I will reconsider prayer’s efficacy.

Despite the difficulty of putting prayer to the test, a serious attempt was made by a team led by Dr. Herbert Benson. Results were published in the American Heart Journal. Heart patients at six U.S. hospitals were randomly assigned to one of three groups. In Group A, 604 patients were told they might be prayed for, and they were. In Group B, 597 patients were told them might be prayed for, but they were not. In Group C, 601 were prayed for after being told this would happen. The intercessory prayer was provided for 14 days, starting the night before the patients had coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

The results: Complications arose for 52 percent of Group A, 51 perent of Group B, and 59 percent of Group C. Mortality was the same in all groups. Faced with this, some believers said it was all in God’s plan, which would raise the question why this prayer, or any other, was offered in the first place.

If there were a god that answered prayers, the population pleading to and praising the correct one would be overwhelmingly blessed compared to the heathens. If prayers to Allah were effective, the Middle East would be a paradise as opposed to a perpetual war zone. If genuflecting before the Biblical god were beneficial, Mississippi would be Heaven on Earth, instead of ranking 50th in the country in income, education, and health. If Buddhist prayers worked, Tibet would be Shangri-La for real instead of suffering its seventh decade of brutal Chinese occupation.

Not everyone is going to agree with me, and I accept and respect that. I am also open to considering new evidence. If someone wants me to believe that prayer works, pray that this blog post will disappear and we’ll check the results.

by

“Critical edition” (Critical thinking)

BOYTHINKINGThe stated purpose of this blog is twofold: To examine claims of the supernatural and paranormal, and to promote critical thinking. Yet only two of my 34 posts thus far have dealt exclusively with the latter. Taking jabs at Tarot Cards, ghost hunts, and crystal healing have proven just too tempting.

But in the interest of balance, we are overdue for a critical thinking spotlight. We will go through some bad argument forms to see how to recognize and avoid them. Remember, this refers to the arguments’ structure and not the positions taken.

Also, a person’s intelligence has little to do with their critical thinking skills. A 140 IQ could be a plus toward thinking critically, but only if it’s used correctly. Jerome Corsi, a Harvard Ph.D., uses his vast intelligence to lead the Birther movement. Stanford alum Bryan Fischer argues that shaking iPod ear buds in a box will disprove evolution.

To keep from falling into these traps, learn to recognize logical fallacies. A frequent one is “Affirming the Consequent.” It can take a form like this: “If Madam X is psychic, she could correctly predict the future. Madam X correctly predicted that there would be an airplane crash in Asia this summer. Therefore, Madam X is psychic.”

Even if the first two statements are true, it can lead to a false conclusion. This is because the first two statements fail to take into account that there could be other factors in play. In this instance, persons can make correct predictions based on knowledge of the subject rather than paranormal abilities. Or, common in the prophecy field, someone may get a few hits and many more misses. Or Madam X could have researched airplane crash histories to determine which times and places are most likely to experience one. In fact, this very method was used in the 1980s by a skeptic, who correctly predicted a crash, then revealed his methods.

Closely related to affirming the consequent is “Confusion of the Inverse.” It is commonly heard that 95 percent of accidents occur within 10 miles of home. Deducing, then, that being far from home makes one safer would be confusing the inverse. Most accidents occur within 10 miles of home because that’s where people spend a majority of their time. Besides accidents, most meals, entertainment, and exercise also occur within 10 miles of home.
But being far from home won’t make one tired, bored, and lazy.

Another example: “People who sit at the front of the classroom make more A’s than those who sit in the back. So to make better grades, sit in the front.” But “A” students usually want to be close to the teacher and visual aids, whereas the more casual pupil prefers the rows of protection that allow them to pass notes and doodle.

Another similar logical fallacy is “Denying the Antecedent.” This follows the form, “If A, then B. Not B. Therefore, not A.” It is a doomed premise from the beginning because it is imposing false constraints on the subject.

An example would be: “If it is rush hour, the interstate will be packed. It is not rush hour. Therefore, traffic will be light.” Again, two correct statements might lead to an incorrect conclusion. An accident or, more excitingly, a sinkhole, might have traffic backed up.

Then we have special pleading. Here, a person needs to carve out an exception to one of their arguments in order for the overarching point to be made.

When discussing the existence of God with creationists, one line I frequently hear is that something cannot come from nothing. When this theological table is turned, and the creationist is asked what caused God or how he come from nothing, the usual replies are “He just always was,” or “He didn’t need to be created.” This, of course, contradicts the point the creationist made in the first place.

Next, we have tu quoque, which is literally “You too.” When a U.S. District Judge proscribed county commissioners in Carroll County, Md., from using exclusively Christian prayers before meetings, aforementioned theocrat Bryan Fischer claimed this was Christian persecution. I committed a tu quoque by chiming in with, “This outrage coming from a man who wants to ban the construction of mosques.” But Fischer’s hypocrisy was unrelated to the claim he made. There were good arguments against Fisher’s position, but I failed to make them.

Two other logical fallacies are composition and division. In composition, the implication is that because something is true in part, it must be true as a whole. But because atoms are unseen, it doesn’t mean that a desk comprised of them would likewise be invisible. Similarly, if a person at a soccer match stands up to improve his view, it doesn’t follow that if all his fellow fans join in, everyone will see better.

The inverse in division, which makes the false conclusion that because something is true as a whole, it must be true in part. One can safely consume salt, but not sodium or chloride individually.

I hope this has been enlightening, and I’ve enjoyed writing it. But now I’m ready again to start tackling exorcists and reincarnation.

by

“Misfortune teller” (Clairvoyance)

PALMREADING6Divination is an attempt to see the future or discover secret knowledge through various silly means. Some are well known, such as tea leaves, melted wax, and Ouija boards. More obscure but tastier methods employ cheese, onions, and barley cakes plopped into water. The most specific method I’ve come across is bronchiomancy, which finds deep meaning in the lungs of sacrificed white llamas.

I have no bias against any of these methods; all are equally useless. There are dozens of types of divination, most of which arose as specific to a certain culture. The ancient Chinese used I Ching hexagrams, agrarian societies preferred herbs, while crystal balls became synonymous with Eastern Europe. Romanian citizenship is still a plus in the business. Most divination is done by females, a byproduct of the women’s intuition myth.

Divination relies on magical thinking, apophenia, and pareidolia. If you don’t know these terms, never fear, I’ll guide you through. And that’s a prophecy you can count on.

In an era of technical jargon, euphemisms, and neologisms, “Magical Thinking” stands out both for its simplicity and its rather bold slap in the face of the credulous. It refers to believing in the interconnectedness of all objects and circumstances, and thinking that a powerful force is in control, to some degree or another. It can be as concrete as Zeus dictating the weather, as esoteric as there being another plane of existence, or as vague as being sure there is something else out there.

An excellent definition was provided by psychologist James Alcock who said, “Magical Thinking is the interpreting of two closely occurring events as though one caused the other, without any concern for the causal link.”

Also crucial in divination is pareidolia, which is seeing distinct visions in vague forms, such as Jesus in your maple cabinet or the Face on Mars. It also explains a person detecting satanic praise in a backward Iron Maiden track. If casting sticks, an oracle may “see” a forest, causing the customer to interpret this as a sign she should move out of the city.

Pareidolia is closely related to apophenia, which is finding connections in a meaningless pattern. This signals a segue from the relatively innocuous condition of being easily deceived to the more serious matter of becoming dangerously deluded. John Nash in “A Beautiful Mind” is one example. A more terrifying manifestation was Charles Manson, who interpreted Beatles lyrics and other phenomena as calling on him to act.

It speaks to mankind’s aversion to randomness and can be a way of trying to find meaning, and one’s place, in the Cosmos. Someone searching for a deeper truth may find comfort in thinking something else is in control, be it a goddess, a Tarot deck, or sheep innards. Less charitably, it can involve a bit of arrogance to think that star patterns or random events are being controlled by a deity or force for your benefit.

It can also be a way of dealing with troubling times. After his son committed suicide, iconoclastic bishop James Pike interpreted angles of an opened safety pin and books on the floor as his deceased son communicating to him that he had killed himself at 8:19 p.m.

Ascribing power to divination requires making very generous accommodations. I found a 47-year-old woman online who gloated that her favorite astrologer had predicted the Sept. 11 attacks. She chided foolish persons like myself stuck in our stubborn rationality.

I went to the link she provided, and while it didn’t list the place or method, there was a prognostication made on New Year’s Day 2001 that cautioned, “Beware of a terrorist attack on this date.” Sure enough, listed below was Sept. 11! Less chilling were the 129 other dates listed that incorrectly predicted a terrorist attack for that day. In the wild, wacky divination world, a .007 winning percentage is considered a success.

by

“Astral misconception” (Astral projection)

NDEAn out-of-body experience, sometimes called astral projection, refers to person feeling they are detached from their body. But the person is not out of their body, nor out of their mind.

The feelings can occur when the person is hovering near death, but also can be brought about through a variety of physiological, psychological, and experimental means. The most frequent avenue is via oxygen deprivation and hyperventilation. They can also be experienced after a localized epileptic seizure or through the influence of anesthetics. In addition, they can be created artificially by electrically stimulating the brain’s temporal and parietal lobes.

Regions related to our proprioception are activated during OBEs. These regions impact our sense of the relative position of different parts of the body, as well as the effort required to move. Intoxication disrupts proprioception, which is why drunks are unable to close their eyes and touch their nose. Similarly, disrupting this sense causes some out-of-body experiences.

Researchers in London demonstrated this on volunteers. Scientists sat the subjects in chairs and had them peer into goggles connected to video screens that showed the volunteers’ backs. When researchers touched the volunteers’ chests with rods, the subjects felt as though they were removed from their bodies and were observing them from a distance.

Feelings similar to this have been reported by survivors of plane crashes and car accidents, as well as those suffering epileptic seizures. When someone is dying or experiencing a seizure, neurons can misfire, cutting the flow of oxygen to the brain. This screwing with the visual cortex leads to visions of white light, tunnels, and feelings of warmth. These are common in the out-of-body experience’s faith-based cousin, the Near Death Experience.

During such an experience, pupils widen, reducing the depth of field. This means the person sees a bright light, and any persons in front of them seem to be bathed in a pleasant glow. By contrast, any images on the periphery are blurry.

Oxygen starvation also causes failure of organs and tissues, but since the eyes and brain are most sensitive to its effects, they shut down first. The brain stem, meanwhile, is the most resistant to oxygen starvation. Therefore, oxygen starvation will cause vision to fail before causing a loss of consciousness.

Consider what happens when a person faints, which occurs when there is a temporary failure of blood flow to the brain. As the process begins, a fainting victim will notice that everything is turning gray or black. This is because their vision failed before they lost consciousness. Some people also report tunnel vision just before going under.

Most people undergoing an NDE will report they felt themselves being drawn to the light. This may be due to the initial restoration of central vision, followed by the recovery of peripheral vision. This would cause a person to initially see what appeared to be a dot of light at the end of a tunnel. This light would grow as the vision increased, creating an illusion of moving through the tunnel.

by

“Wherever I may aroma” (Aromatherapy)Q

oilAromatherapy refers to extracting essential oils from plants, flowers, and roots to try and heal someone. Since it is based on no known science or critical peer review, methods vary and the field has no licensure, certification, or required training. If you say you’re an aromatherapist, you are. It uses botanical terms and words like “healing” and “chemical properties” give it a façade of legitimacy.

Despite the prefix, only a small percentage of aromatherapy uses the whiffing of a substance as the cure. More often, the aromas are used to identify the oils and determine their potency. The resulting products are then applied to the skin or consumed.

The field is rife with anecdotal tales, which devotees swallow with as much gusto as they would a lemongrass healing gumbo. Post hoc reasoning and communal reinforcement also permeate the aromatherapy community.

Considerably harder to find are double-blind, peer-reviewed, reproducible studies on the topic. The Center for Spirituality and Healing offered a few reasons for the lack of such studies. On its website, it notes, “Oils will be different based on region and climate.” Perhaps, but that would be no reason they couldn’t be tested in a specific area.

The center concedes that standardization could be achieved, but skirts this with a nifty piece of ad hoc reasoning: “The problem with standardized essential oils is that they are no longer natural, genuine, and authentic.”

It further argues that, “Blind studies with aromatic substances are problematic because people associate smells with past experiences.” It is true that smell is the sense most associated with memory. But a person associating cinnamon with long-lost friend would not preclude testing its veracity as an anxiety buster.

The site goes on, proclaiming, “In essential oil therapy, the oils are sometimes applied with massage, which makes it difficult to tell whether the outcome was due to the essential oil alone, or the massage, or the combination.” Despite this admission, we next learn that using oils results in “positive effects for a variety of health concerns including infections, pain, anxiety, depression, tumors, premenstrual syndrome, nausea, and many others.”

Delving deeper into the site, we are told that “Essential oils have been used on humans for thousands of years.” Here we see a frequent alternative medicine ploy, the appeal antiquity. These appeals always seem to be based on ideas from the Dynastic Chinese, Native Americans, or Pharaohs. Just to mix it up, I’d love once to see a New Age proponent praise a South Sudanese rain dance or a Montenegrin talisman.

I conducted my own study. As I was both 100 percent of the researchers and subjects, it wasn’t of the double blind variety. But the Center for Spirituality and Healing says that’s not my fault. For the experiment, I slathered myself in Patchouli oil and, indeed, I experienced an immediate increase in skin slickness.

I didn’t get anything else out of it, but there were no shortage of ideas when I mentioned this to an online aromatherapy community. Here, testimonials are passed around excitedly without questioning or studies. No evidence is supplied or requested. There is seemingly no mental, physical, or spiritual benefit beyond aromatherapy’s scope. Juniper alone is said to cure skin conditions, influenza, varicose veins, and most, astoundingly, epilepsy and mental illness. It can be used as an antidepressant, an antibacterial agent, and plenty of “antis” in between.

One of the more common claims is that aromatherapy boosts the immune system. Yet, according to Dr. Mark Crislip of Science-Based Medicine, “The immune system, if you are otherwise healthy, cannot be boosted. A reasonable diet, exercise and sleep is all the boosting the immune system needs.”

In fact, the immune system will only fall apart under extreme conditions, such as starvation, chemotherapy, or becoming HIV positive. And I could find no studies that supported the use of jasmine or lavender to cure those conditions.

An aromatherapist will chalk up a success if rose petals are used and a sore throat goes away. But if it won’t work on a second person, the aromatherapist will note that different bodies have different needs, and they will suggest, and sale, another tonic. To be safe, some aromatherapists make non-testable claims, such as how certain oils will restore harmony to the energy flow.

Another tactic is claiming their products are part of a holistic approach to health. The other parts are regular checkups, healthy food, vigorous exercise, and adequate sleep, all of which will make you feel better without aromatherapy. As such, aromatherapy is not generally dangerous like faith healing or vaccine denial. It just won’t do any good, and the user ends up to attributing to aromatherapy whatever good happens when practicing it, or to what a healthy lifestyle is responsible for.

Oils can kill bacteria, but soap will do it better and it can be purchased without Tangerine Dream playing in the background. Despite all this, I am not completely immune to the aromatherapy’s charms. A long-discontinued incense, called Passion Flower, had an aroma so pleasant it immediately shifted me to a tranquil mood. Must have been my chakra balancing.

by

“Q the nonsense” (Energy jewelry)

QRAY

The Q-Ray bracelet is the one way to spend money on jewelry without placating your wife. Unless she is seeking to balance her body’s positive and negative ions, and doesn’t mind a product that cannot be tested to do this or anything else.

An ion is an atom that has a positive or negative charge due to a change in its number of electrons. Piggybacking on this legitimate science, the Q-Ray manufacturer claims to sell an ionized product that will eliminate pain caused by an ionic imbalance.

The body cannot suffer an ionic imbalance, so this product works without even having to buy it. The product as claimed is impossible since solid objects cannot be ionized. The company may as well be selling blivets. The manufacturer notes that its product is worn by celebrities and athletes, simultaneously appealing to irrelevant authority and vanity.

When writing about alternative medicine products, this is where I would normally insert the line about it having no peer-reviewed, double blind, reproducible study. But in this case, there is one. The Mayo Clinic ran a test on 710 subjects over four weeks. Scientists studied the claim that the Q-Ray offered pain relief, using the bracelet and a placebo. All subjects were suffering musculoskeletal pain, and the Q-Ray bracelet showed no ability to alleviate it.

Because the company had made claims that were demonstrably false, a federal judge ordered it to pay $22.5 million to the fraud victims. He did not, however, enjoin the company from selling any more bracelets. They can just no longer attribute any ability to it. The manufacturer has been reduced to noting its deluxe silver coating and durability. The latter is an accurate description of a product still being sold after being proven a fraud and being the centerpiece of a 10-figure judgement.

Then we have the Q Link pendant. This is unrelated to the Q-Ray, except for linguistic and loony likenesses.

The Q Link manufacturer claims its product “neutralizes the effects of electromagnetic fields from computers, cell phones, and other electronic devices.” It never explains what these effects are, why they should be avoided, and how the Q Link products manage this. It adds that the electromagnetic field is an invisible cause of stress and fatigue. Maybe the Q Link can help with my sinking feeling when I think about having to mow the lawn.

Dr. Ben Goldacre, an author and skeptic leader, pried open a Q Link pendant and examined its innards. He found a circuit board connected to nothing. That would be like a front door without a house. He also spied eight copper pads, also connected to nothing. Finally, he saw a zero-ohm resistor, again connected to nothing. It added up to little more than wire crammed into some diamond-shaped rubber.

The electronic components can be bought for a few cents, but the Q Link bracelet sells for $60. For this, consumers will receive a product that, according to the seller, offers “resonance with your biofield and harmonizing of your energy.” Left unclear are how the resonance occurs, what a bioifield is, what your energy is being harmonized with, and why all this adds up to a something beneficial.

The company’s website boasts of many happy customers who relate “a wide range of benefits that have enhanced their quality of life.” Could they be a little more vague?

According to the company, the central feature of the product is that it acts on an energy field “of such low intensity that we have no means of measuring it.” That makes their having accessed and manipulated the field all the more amazing.

They claim users have reported fewer headaches, more energy, increased mental clarity, a sharper focus, better sleep, and less anxiety. Such wide ranging claims are a pseudoscience red flag. Excedrin will make a claim to a specific, testable, ability: Curing headaches. Testimonials that are wildly varying and encompass all manner of mental and physical traits are indicative of people attributing to the Q Link pendant whatever good happens to them when wearing it.

If you want to reap real benefits from jewelry, buy your wife a necklace.